Ledger · 2026-09-04 · AgTech / Materials Science
Paraffin-Functionalized Sand (PFS) Mulch via Hexane-Solvent Evaporation
Rejected
This concept did not clear the framework. The reasoning is published in full below.
What the assessment found
| Incumbent benchmark | Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Black Mulch Film |
| Entry application | high-value horticultural crops in arid regions |
| Measured advantage | none |
| Time to first revenue | 18 months |
| Gross margin at parity | 95.1% |
| Startup CapEx | $465,000 |
| Payback from first sale | 0.6 months |
| Capital productivity | 28.65x |
| Regulatory risk | Moderate — qualification costs reported ($150,000 estimated) |
Why it failed
- Voided by: Mismatched comparison, Economics undisclosed, Negative control / sub-2x, Form-factor / handling regression, Absence search missing
- Absence asserted, search unreported
Assessment
The report explicitly concedes complete commercial failure. A severe material mass penalty of 60 metric tons of sand per hectare versus 100 kg of LDPE film creates insurmountable cost, labor, and logistical barriers. Startup CapEx ($465,000) exceeds the threshold and no structured market absence ledger is provided.
Also flagged
- runsheet_no_quantities
A rejection is not a claim that the science is wrong. It means the venture case did not survive: the comparator was not what the buyer actually buys, the comparison was not like-for-like, the advantage fell short of a step change, or the capital and time to first revenue were prohibitive.
Assessed 2026-09-04 against seven gates plus the voiding sub-tests. How the method works · Browse all concepts